Blog

As the old song goes “wherever you go… there you are”. Kind of fitting in today’s environment as 2023 has been anything but what was expected. Going into the year, the Bear market was raging, uncertainty abounded, and folks were very reticent to look ahead. In short… nobody expected much and were pretty well resigned to mediocrity. A far cry from the feeling we will get when we look at our June ending statements.

Entering the year, the markets were facing a challenging landscape, with stocks faltering and interest rates reaching a ten-year high. Navigating through these market fluctuations has been uncomfortable, but it's important to remember that investing is not meant to be easy. If it were, everyone would be wealthy.

“Whoa…. Were halfway there. Whoa oh, livin’ on a prayer”

                                                                                 John Bon Jovi

“Markets climb a wall of worry. As they rise, the nay-sayers are the majority. After they hit new highs, the nay-sayers are none to be found”

                                                      CNBC market wizard who’s name is forgotten

“Markets are efficient. People are not”

                                                                                  Peter Lynch

The past few months have brought about significant changes, but it seems that volatility is subsiding, and the markets are now adjusting to determine their next course of action.

“We find doing nothing the most difficult task of all”

            -Warren Buffet

As advisors, a significant part of our role is to filter out short-term noise and focus on guiding our clients towards their long-term objectives. However, with the proliferation of "media noise" and the abundance of news sources today, this task has become increasingly challenging for most individuals. It is a natural inclination for humans to want to regain control when faced with unsatisfactory outcomes. For instance, if you receive a poor exam score in school, the typical response would be to study harder to improve your preparation for the next test. Similarly, if you put on a few extra pounds during the holidays, you can take charge by hitting the gym and adopting a healthier diet.

As the Holiday season is upon us, and work seasonally slows down, I thought it a good time to post a review of 2022 and my first annual “thoughts for the new year”. Not calling em predictions because every schlub has those. Keeping it classy shall we say….

As we enter the second quarter of the year, financial news has become less volatile, with inflation slowing down, equity markets gradually recovering, and the banking crisis being averted for now. This might lead some to view the headlines as "dull," but, in reality, this stability is a positive development.

There is a term used in sports called the mushy middle. It’s when a team is neither really good nor really bad. Not good enough to win it all but not bad enough to really stink and need a total rebuild.

As Quarter 1 draws to a close, the machinations of the press, the economy, and the markets continue. Basically, it was a quarter of fits and starts and we round tripped to nowhere. Neither up nor down was the end result of 90 days torn off the calendar. As Bear markets go, this one is a grinder. As history has shown, the last innings of the Bear are usually punctuated with bank failures and news headlines.

In the last couple of weeks, there have been reports of multiple banks failing, which has led to some concerns among our clients and acquaintances regarding the safety of their funds and whether we are experiencing another 2008-like situation. To this, I would like to provide some insights into the matter and delve deeper into the causes and implications of these events. However, it's important to note that the situation is evolving rapidly, and new information is coming to light each day. Nevertheless, I will try my best to provide a high-level overview of the events and their impact on our portfolio allocations.