Economically, interest rates are up. Some would say waaay up. As the Fed is working to meet its inflation mandate, the cost of money has gone up. Mortgages, personal loans, business loans, student loans, credit cards….you name it and its up. The dampening effect on the economy will be real, albeit slower to develop than a lot of the pundits had predicted. We have already seen the real estate markets seize up as well as the markets for autos and other high loan type purchases. Cost of money has significantly added to the final price tag and crushed demand. The hurt to the consumer is real and will get worse as rates are held higher for a longer period of time than most expected.
Cost of money impacts more than just the consumer. We normally don’t think about rising cost of corporate debt and its impact. Just like real people, the increase in cost of debt will have a negative impact on their cost structure. Much of the debt financing used by small and mid-sized companies is short term debt whereas the larger “blue chip” firms finance on longer periods of time. Many as long as 10 and 30 years. Basically, the big guys are insulated for several years from the rising rates. The little guys are going to have their debt roll off soon and replace it with much higher cost debt which will add a lot of cost to their operations. From a portfolio perspective, it is part of the reason small companies (small cap stocks) are still lying dormant near their lows and have yet to recover. Another reason we have been very underweight small caps across our client portfolios. When rates decline, they will move significantly higher but until then they wait.
One other element of the rising interest rates (cost of money) is on the pocket of Uncle Sam. Yes, your government is paying more to do its business. Not here to debate exactly what that business is or what they do, just to point out that their debt cost will be an increasing percentage of their budget. With deficits at historic levels, their debt service cost will become problematic. This year, the interest cost will approximate 7% of the federal budget. Many projections have it rising to 10 to 12 percent of federal outlays in a year or two. As this factoid becomes obvious to the great unwashed masses, it may actually help in the inflation fight as belt tightening will be a real thing. Stop laughing, I don’t mean major austerity, but enough lip service and slower increases will do the trick.
Summing it up….we aren’t as bad as we were but not as good as we will eventually be. Getting there takes time and we are far along the path, but more of the journey remains. As the economic drama plays out, the stage will be set for the next upward (growth) economic cycle. Casualties have and will happen as economic creative destruction does its thing. Embracing diversification remains prudent now, as it always has been.
One side note…. It’s not all bad news as savers are now getting a real return on savings. Competitive bank CDs are in the 4’s as are some money funds. My favorite, the US Treasury direct is actually in the 5’s for 90-day paper. My pet peeve (at least one of em) is the banks giving pennies on their savings accounts. There are now many other options and that’s a good thing.
As always, thanks for listening. Don’t hesitate to hit me up if you want to chat or review in more detail. Talking about this stuff is “my thing” so always ready to take the deep dive. Have a great rest of September and I will be back with the quarter end summary in a couple of weeks.
Stay well. Talk soon.
Ed, Frank, Tammy
Edward Stiles
200 N Union St.
Kennett Square, PA 19348
cell 610-745-1931
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